The Mother of All Bearish Charts

All markets trade with a high degree of correlation these days, with some positively and others negatively correlated. One of the stranger correlations has been the Japanese yen and gold being positively correlated. The U.S. dollar, measured by U.S. Dollar Index and the broad trade weighted dollar index, remains the most important. DXY has weakened since the summer though, the Chinese yuan has strengthened. Nothing looks good. The one possible exception is the absolutely monster of an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern on the Japanese yen. If this pattern ever completed, it would require USDJPY climbing past 125, a gain of about 17 percent from here. The measured move is to 175, a gain of more than 60 percent for USDJPY from here. I thought a breakout was possible in a dollar bull market because, as the chart makes clear, USDJPY hasn't been part of the bull market since 2015.

A bullish interpretation is that the yen has been a risk-off currency at times. USDJPY rose during the 2000s expansion. Perhaps a bullish turn in USDJPY heralds the expansion everyone is waiting for. The bearish view is that the yen migth start paying the price for being the global leader in quantitative easing.

If the yen goes, no monetary authority is large enough to stop it. Above 125 and there's no central bank that can save the yen. First, there's the rseistance at 107, which it looks to be testing rigth now. There were 3 false breaks of resistanc in the past year. The pattern turns very bullish for yen if USDJPY slides below 99.

I dub this the mother of all bearish charts right here because the bear case is evaporating by the day, but this chart opens the potential for a shocking reversal of fortune if it were to be the first domino in a broad U.S. dollar rally that eventually puts the kibosh on a technical bear market. If the biggest shock since 1931 is coming, this will be one of the first signals.

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